Betting on the Best – Tiger at the 2010 Masters

It’s hard as someone who enjoys finding golf betting value in action like the 2010 Masters to evaluate Tiger Woods as a contender. 71 career PGA titles, including four at Augusta National, makes Woods a contender as soon as the Tiger head cover comes off of the driver. This year’s tournament, however, has a different meaning for him.

No player in recent memory has come back off of a four-month layoff to win a major as his first start of the year. No player should be expected to hold his championship form after enduring a car accident, a public scandal the like of which has never been seen, a very damaging set of events for his marriage and for his children’s futures. No player realistically would even be thought about in this position.

Then again, no player is quite like Tiger Woods.

Woods has won over 28% of his 253 career starts, a percentage that is staggering in the face of other great players over time. The next best, Ben Hogan, won just over 20%. Jack Nicklaus ‘only’ won 12.2%, or less than one in eight. There is no active player within a sniff of any five-year stretch of Tiger’s career, let alone its entirety.

Our friends at sportsbook.com put Tiger in as the favorite in the Golf Futures betting section at +400, with Phil Mickelson (+800) the only other player favored over the Field (+1500). These odds are in part due to the sheer volume of action on Tiger versus the other guys. The average bettor on sports would be hard pressed to even name ten golfers, much less figure out ones to play favorites on during a major. If a casual fan was looking for a way to get personally vested in the action by betting on the Masters, the two most likely choices are Tiger…and against Tiger.

Taking into account that this is his first event of the year, the masters is an odd place for a tune-up, and many of his Tour cohorts will be looking to cash in on this fact. Expect the money to follow Steve Stricker, the current leader in the FedEx points race, and some long-shot bettors will like last year’s champion Miguel Angel Cabrera at a staggering +10,000. 2010 Honda Classic winner Camilo Villegas is second on the FedEx list, having only played four events this season so far, having finished in the top 25 all four times. Villegas (+2000) and Stricker (+1500) should be good value bets for the ‘I hate Tiger and Phil’ crowd.

The secret factor to take into account is the treatment that Woods will receive at Augusta from the patrons. While not nearly as vocal as the Phoenix Open fans, the Masters crowd will definitely have something to say about Tiger’s re-emergence. How Eldrick reacts the first time someone yells out something mildly offensive or derogatory will play a factor in his performance, although the Augusta National crowd is historically much tamer than most, and rest assured part of the reason Team Tiger elected to make their return this first week of April.

After the media circus on Monday preceding the tournament is going to be the best time to evaluate the betting value of Tiger in this tournament. The Masters folks have given over the entire day to media wanting to grill Woods, scheduling all other interviews on Tuesday. After these interviews are printed or aired, the betting public will make their final moves on the odds, and since 75% of the money will follow Woods, the hidden value bets will emerge after this media frenzy.

The most interesting golfer in this field for a good golf betting value is probably Dustin Johnson. In his third full season on the Tour, Johnson has already won at Pebble Beach (site of this year’s U.S. Open) and ranks fourth in the FedEx points race. The length off the tee and the 70%+ greens-in-regulation serve to shape his game perfectly for Augusta National, and his name will not ring many bells in the non-PGA junkie set, making his number affordable (currently at +2000 per our friends here at sportsbook.com) and very plausible. Remember, the last three victors at the Masters were first-time winners (M.A. Cabrera, Zach Johnson, Trevor Immelman). Don’t count out Jim Furyk, either. He has won already in 2010, and makes his putts (averages less than 28/round; PGA average is 29.2). Furyk gives great value on money at +3000, and that number should slide after Tiger does his work with the media on Monday, making him a good choice to get in on early.

So, if taking the world’s number-one ranked player doesn’t do it for you, look around. There is plenty of good action to take away from those silly enough to bet on a guy who hasn’t played in four months. Even if that guy is the odds-on favorite. Good luck, and happy speculating!