Masters 2010 – The Tiger Effect

While having a four-time champion in the field at a major is not normally too newsworthy, the 2010 Masters will draw even more attention than usual. Tiger Woods will make his season debut at the year’s first Major, and all eyes will be on the world’s number-one ranked player. As will all Golf Bettors, as the opportunity to cash in on a long shot at the Masters has never been stronger than this 2010 Masters.

Most players play in tune-up events or smaller yet still important tournaments to prepare for major championships, but the path for Tiger is different than in most years.

Woods won the 2009 U.S. Open in remarkable fashion, limping around the course on what was later revealed to be a broken leg. After medical attention and missing the last two majors of the year, Tiger was still ranked number one in the world golf standings.

Tiger is playing his first event since the Australian Open in November 2009. After a car accident at his home in Florida and subsequent revelations of numerous sexual affairs with various women outside of his marriage came to light, the sport’s most popular player went into a self-imposed exile. After seeking counseling and spending time at home with his wife and children, Woods has re-entered the golf world this week with Augusta National in mind.

As a returning champion, Tiger has access to the course during non-event times to play and sharpen his skills, while others are playing in PGA events at Bay Hill and Torrey Pines. With this advantage, along with his four previous victories in 13 professional starts at Augusta, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Woods can don the green jacket once again in mid-April. The question is how Tiger’s return will affect others in the field.

Two-time champion Phil Mickelson is one of the early favorites, showing in Sportsbook.com Golf Futures as a +800 to win the event. While Tiger is set as the favorite in the current odds (+400), many believe that betting the favorite here makes very little sense, as Augusta is known for taking many great players down if they are not in the best playing shape possible.

Other notables in the field include defending champion Miguel Angel Cabrera (underdog bet of the week at +10,000), FedEx Cup points leader Steve Stricker (+1500) and a newly resurgent Ernie Els (+1800). Keep in mind, the Field (+1500) is considered equal to or better than all but Tiger and Phil in the current odds.

Another name to keep a close eye on is new Tour sensation Dustin Johnson. Johnson (+2000) recorded his first win of this season at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, extending his personal streak to three straight seasons on the Tour with a victory. This is more remarkable when considering that this is only Johnson’s third year on the Tour. His career-best scoring average of 69.6 is more than a stroke better than the Tour average, and good ball-striking is essential to having a shot at victory on Magnolia Lane.

It is important to consider that Tiger, who had dominated golf for better than a decade, is now seen as something less than invincible. With Y.E. Yang’s victory at the PGA Championship over the third-round leading Woods, many players see cracks in the armor, and will not be as reliable in their ability to crumple under the pressure of a Tiger charge up the leaderboard. Players such as Kenny Perry (+6000) and Paddy Harrington (+2000) will be stout in the face of any surge if they get out in front of the field.

Camilo Villegas is also a probable contender, currently ranked second in the FedEx standings. Villegas (+2000) already has the 2010 Honda Classic under his belt, and is playing with a confidence that will be hard for any player to beat. His four Top-25 finishes in his four starts signal to the field that they will be seeing his name on the leaderboard that first week in April.

With all of that said, it will be difficult for many to pick against the 71-time winner Woods. For a place to return to golf after a very sordid and public scandal, Tiger could not have selected better than the Masters, where the press are screened and credentialed thoroughly and those who cross the line in asking questions will have their credentials revoked, ensuring a gentle re-introduction into the life of Tiger. Augusta National is also a course that Woods is very familiar with, not to mention that he is already playing practice rounds there weeks in advance of the tournament. There are vey few sure things in sports, and even less in golf, but a motivated Tiger Woods, seeking both personal and professional redemption, is an obstacle one bets against at his own peril.