Mountain West Conference 2009
Mountain West Conference 2009
MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
Utah was so good in 2008 that certain members of congress have taken up questioning the BCS as to why a team like the Utes can never get a shot at the national title. After all, they were the country"s only unbeaten team and beat SEC-power Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Such is life though for the non-BCS leagues in college football. Well, for 2009, Utah figures to still be good, but only good enough to make a run at the Mountain West crown. BYU & TCU also have their sights set on that distinction but only the most optimistic of fans has dreams of a BCS-bowl dancing in their head. Take a look as we continue our series of 2009 conference previews by looking at the MWC.
Bitter rivals Utah and BYU figure to battle tooth-and-nail for the Mountain West title in 2009. Both teams figure to be ranked among the top 25 in the land, but only one can rule the state of Utah. The Utes were of course, 13-0 in ‘08. The strength of this year"s team will be the defense, a unit that brings back seven starters—-most notably, defensive end Kao Misi and linebacker Stevenson Sylvester. With only four returning offensive starters back, the Utes" stingy stop unit and the wheels of proven tailback Matt Asiata (707 yards) will need to carry this team while the new quarterback, whoever it ends up being, grows into the job. BYU"s offense, led by senior quarterback Max Hall and junior tailback Harvey Unga, should be high-octane, if the Cougars" rebuilt offensive line holds up and Unga, who was bothered by various bumps and bruises in 2008, can stay healthy. If Utah or BYU falter, then TCU-—led by pass-rushing demon Jerry Hughes (15 sacks), an outstanding secondary, a great X-and-O man in Gary Patterson and an underrated signal-caller in Andy Dalton—-could wear the crown. Air Force returns 13 starters from last year"s Armed Forces Bowl team, including one of the league"s top runners in Tim Jefferson. UNLV and Colorado State both serious signs of life and hope to continue their ascent in "09. The league"s other three schools—-San Diego State, Wyoming and New Mexico-—have all hired new coaches, hoping to get similar results to what UNLV"s Mike Sanford and Colorado State"s Steve Fairchild have produced thus far.
2009 PREDICTED FINISH
1. Utah
2. BYU
3. TCU
4. Air Force
5. Colorado State
6. UNLV
7. New Mexico
8. San Diego State
9. Wyoming
AIR FORCE FALCONS
Where: Colorado Springs, CO
Head Coach: Troy Calhoun, 3rd year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Facility: Falcon Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 3-3-5 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +4.5 (#45 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3.7 (#49 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 39 (#63 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 36.17 (#83 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 21-17 (55%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 20-16 (56%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 9-7 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 11-9 (55%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 14-10 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-2, 12-6 (67%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 8-10 (44%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 26.8 (52) - 22.2 (43)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 349.1 (69) - 341.5 (50)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.96 (87) - 5.07 (47)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.47 (43) - 3.68 (39)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.74 (25) - 6.93 (67)
Turnover Differential: +1 (14)
2009 OUTLOOK: Even though the Falcons finished only fourth in the Mountain West Conference and lost to Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl, Troy Calhoun actually did a better coaching job in his second season than his first, which is why he was rewarded with a new five-year contract. The Academy graduate knows how the institution and its athletes function, and he will continue to get the most out of this program. The demands on the players as Academy cadets always take a toll on their football efforts, but Calhoun understands how to manage that situation.
OFFENSE: Air Force"s offense became much more dynamic in the second half of 2008 after freshman quarterback Tim Jefferson took the controls and freshman running back Asher Clark was featured. The Falcons staged spring drills mostly without them, as Jefferson concentrated on academics and Clark was sidelined by a knee injury, but they should be at full strength this fall. The Falcons ranked fifth in the Mountain West in total offense, producing 349 yards per game, but that"s not bad, considering how their ball-control style results in fewer plays. Air Force, as usual, led the league in rushing at 266 yards per game. Jefferson should keep improving throughout his career and develop more passing ability, preventing opponents from loading up against the run. In Jefferson"s absence, backups Ben Cochran and Connor Dietz gained experience. Clark should play at an all-league level, running behind offensive lineman Nick Charles.
DEFENSE: Like the offense, Air Force"s defense ranked fifth in the league, allowing 341 yards per game. As those stats suggest, the Falcons were not good enough to slow down Utah, TCU or BYU, the three teams that beat them in conference play. Not coincidentally, those were the top three teams in the league, and the Falcons defeated everyone else. The Falcons simply wore down in the second half against those top programs and gave up too many points. In home games, Air Force allowed Utah to drive 80 yards for a touchdown in the late stages of a tie contest and gave up a clinching touchdown drive to BYU in the fourth quarter. So staying strong and finishing better will be the Falcons" challenge. Air Force"s defense will feature safety Chris Thomas, who was voted the team MVP in 2008. The Falcons will miss sack specialist Jake Paulsen, but Air Force"s coaching staff always seem to find a way to pressure opposing quarterbacks with aggressive, undersized players. Last year, the Falcons ranked second in the Mountain West with 34 sacks. They also did a good job in terms of takeaways with 18 fumble recoveries and 12 interceptions, helping the team tie for first in the conference in turnover margin (plus-13). Five of those takeaways came in the red zone and Air Force also made two fourth-down stops inside the 20. A major concern, however, is the indefinite suspension of cornerback Reggie Rembert for a violation of Academy standards. Reports indicated Rembert will be allowed to practice, but not play, in games if the suspension continues into September or beyond.
PREDICTION: Major rebuilding was necessary in 2008, after Calhoun inherited some experienced talent initially, and he succeeded in fielding another winning team. The growth of Jefferson will give the Falcons a chance to improve, but breaking into the league"s top three would be a major achievement. More realistically, Air Force can hope for another winning season and a bowl bid. The Falcons have to visit both BYU and Utah, while getting TCU at home.
BYU COUGARS
Where: Provo, UT
Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall, 5th year
2008 Record: 10-3 SU, 3-9 ATS
Facility: LaVell Edwards Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +12.3 (#22 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +8 (#28 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 47 (#33 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 40.42 (#58 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 10-3, 32-7 (82%)
Overall ATS: 3-9, 19-18 (51%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 10-6 (63%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-6, 9-12 (43%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-9, 17-16 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 2-2 (50%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 34.2 (20) - 21.9 (39)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 444.4 (16) - 355.7 (58)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.3 (19) - 5.24 (59)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.09 (64) - 3.83 (54)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.2 (18) - 6.88 (63)
Turnover Differential: +0.15 (54)
2009 OUTLOOK: The standards have become so high again at BYU that a 10-3 season was considered unacceptable. The Cougars lost only two conference games, but the defeats were by a total of 49 points and sentenced them to third place in the league after winning all 16 Mountain West Conference games the previous two seasons. So there"s no complacency in Provo.
OFFENSE: BYU led the MWC in total offense with 444 yards per game, but turnovers were costly to the Cougars in losses to TCU, Utah and Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl. So a year that began with a “Quest for Perfection” theme resulted in room for improvement. Avoiding such mistakes, both in terms of critical interceptions and fumbles while attempting to throw, is the challenge for senior quarterback Max Hall, who is entering his third year as a starter. The Cougars led the MWC by converting 55.7 percent of their third-down plays and that percentage was even higher for much of the season. They also went 7-for-10 on fourth down, so Hall obviously knows how to keep the chains moving. Hall will play behind an offensive line that lost four starters, but appears to have capable replacements. The line was solid in the first half, but ended up allowing 20 sacks. Hall will miss star receiver Austin Collie, who entered the NFL draft as a junior and was taken in the fourth round after accounting for more than 1,500 yards last season. No other BYU wideout caught more than three passes, although McKay Jacobson is back from a church mission after catching 28 balls as a freshman. The other consolation is that tight end Dennis Pitta is back as a first-team All- MWC performer. So while BYU will surely miss Collie"s explosiveness and dependability, Hall plans to compensate by spreading the ball around a little more. Running back Harvey Unga is only a junior, yet boasts two 1,000-yard seasons. BYU also expects to have fullback Manase Tonga available after he missed last season because of academic issues.
DEFENSE: BYU"s secondary experienced breakdowns in the second half, and those problems may or may not be fixed. Brandon Howard, a starting cornerback, missed spring drills for personal reasons and is not expected to return. BYU had intended to move Scott Johnson to his natural position of safety, but may need him at cornerback again. BYU was eighth in the league in pass defense, allowing 215 yards per game, and penalties contributed to the Cougars being charged with 70 penalty yards a game. The front appears solid with all-conference end Jan Jorgensen leading the way and tackle Russell Tialavea anchoring things in the middle, and the linebacking should be strong, even with the loss of David Nixon. Matt Bauman is dependable and Coleby Clawson proved to be a playmaker on the outside. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall operates the defense, even though Jaime Hill has considerable responsibility and the title of coordinator. In any case, their mantra is a willingness to give up yards, but not points. So they were not especially concerned about BYU"s ranking sixth in the MWC in total defense, allowing 355 yards per game, but they were disturbed about giving up 32, 48 and 31 points in three losses.
PREDICTION: The Cougars may not say so, but they would be happy with another 10- win season. That"s because they play Oklahoma and Florida State in the first three weeks and TCU and Utah remain formidable in the conference. The only consolation is meeting Oklahoma at a neutral site and having those other teams come to Provo. Still, another double-figure win total seems like a stretch, even though a fifth straight bowl appearance is almost a certainty.
COLORADO STATE RAMS
Where: Fort Collins, CO
Head Coach: Steve Fairchild, 2nd year
2008 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-5 ATS
Facility: Hughes Stadium
Offense: Pro - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -5.1 (#88 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -3.1 (#78 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 34 (#78 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 36.08 (#84 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 7-6, 14-23 (38%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 5-0, 8-6 (57%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-5, 8-12 (40%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 3-5 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-4, 13-13 (50%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.2 (61) - 30.2 (90)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 395.8 (40) - 410.1 (97)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.83 (32) - 6.16 (102)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.21 (59) - 5.27 (111)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.56 (33) - 7.23 (83)
Turnover Differential: +0.15 (55)
2009 OUTLOOK: Head coach Steve Fairchild has restored some credibility to the program and while the Rams may never regain the flagship status they enjoyed for a time under Sonny Lubick, they are capable of knocking off one of the contenders. A lot of this season"s success or failure hinges on the performance of a new quarterback.
OFFENSE:With his background as an NFL offensive coordinator, Fairchild managed to invigorate Colorado State"s offense in his first season, as the Rams averaged 395 yards per game to rank fourth in the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State was second in the league in passing at 248 yards per game. The trick will be maintaining that level of production without running back Gartrell Johnson, a fourthround pick in the NFL draft, and quarterback Billy Farris. Fairchild will turn to senior Grant Stucker or junior-college transfer Jon Eastman, either of whom will rely on receiver Rashaun Greer, a second-team All-MWC selection. Offensive lineman Shelley Smith was similarly honored. All considered, it would be asking a lot for the offense to approach the 400-yard mark again, even though there should be more familiarity with the system in Fairchild"s second year. Fairchild was disgusted with the quarterbacks" performance in the final spring scrimmage, using words such as “awful” and “embarrassing,” so Stucker and Eastman will have a lot to prove to their coach in August. Fairchild was the MWC"s biggest gambler in his first season, at least in terms of fourthdown conversion attempts. He succeeded only 8 of 25 times. He did make the Rams more disciplined, as judged by a league-low 42 penalty yards per game.
DEFENSE: Larry Kerr"s return to Colorado State as defensive coordinator, the job he held in the Rams" glory days under Lubick, did not have much effect. Colorado State allowed 410 yards a game to rank seventh in the MWC in total defense, while the Rams were blistered by Utah"s far-and-away best offensive performance of the season and could not hold a late lead against BYU. Kerr will look for better results, although it will not help that senior tackle Sevaro Johnson was lost for the season with a knee injury in the final spring scrimmage, or that one of the team"s top linebackers, Ricky Brewer, is not available because of suspension. However, Mychal Sisson is a rising star who will move from the strong side to the weak side in the linebacking corps and the secondary should improve. Safety Klint Kubiak returns after being injured part of last season and cornerback DeAngelo Wilkinson is back from suspension, joining the dependable Nick Oppenneer. Statistically, there"s plenty of room for improvement. Colorado State allowed opponents to convert 47 percent of their third-down plays and also let them go 15-for- 20 on fourth down. The Rams ranked last in the league in pass defense, allowing 220 yards a game, and part of the problem was a pass rush that produced only 10 sacks.
PREDICTION: Colorado State was the biggest beneficiary of Utah"s success last season, as the Utes" BCS bid created an extra opening in the Mountain West"s four-bowl lineup. The Rams, who finished 4-4 by beating the four teams below them in the standings, took advantage of their opportunity by beating Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. The Rams will have to hope for similar developments in the bowl picture, because they are unlikely to finish better than 6-6 or move into the top four of the league standings in Fairchild‘s second season.
NEW MEXICO LOBOS
Where: Albuquerque, NM
Head Coach: Mike Locksley, 1st year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: University Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 3
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -1.7 (#78 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.3 (#65 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#73 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 40.33 (#60 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 19-19 (50%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 19-17 (53%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 11-8 (58%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-2, 9-7 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-4, 10-10 (50%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 21.1 (94) - 22.8 (46)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 340.4 (79) - 335.3 (45)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.94 (88) - 5 (42)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.63 (35) - 3.32 (18)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.52 (107) - 7.02 (70)
Turnover Differential: +0.25 (43)
2009 OUTLOOK: One of these statements is true: New Mexico"s program had grown “stale” (that"s Rocky Long"s word) after 11 seasons with the same coach, or Long maximized the Lobos" talent to a degree that will be difficult to match. The answer will take awhile to develop, but it will be interesting to see how new offensive and defensive schemes play out in head coach Mike Locksley"s first season.
OFFENSE: Locksley describes his offensive approach as “completely different” than what the Lobos did last season. The Lobos were forced into a conservative approach after losing starting quarterback Donovan Porterie to a season-ending knee injury early in the year. Basically, they had to play around the quarterback position, hardly an ideal situation. But Porterie is now healthy and ready to direct Locksley"s spread offense. A former offensive coach under Ron Zook at both Florida and Illinois, Locksley will bring an attack that more closely resembles what Florida is doing under Urban Meyer. His goal during spring drills was to raise the confidence level of an offensive group that was beaten down, when all the Lobos could do was try to develop creative ways to run the same running plays. Locksley describes his challenge in taking over for the defensive- minded Long as “not so much rebuilding as renovation,” even in coming off a 4-8 season that included a 2-6 mark in conference play. Center Erik Cook will anchor the line, hoping to improve after the Lobos ranked seventh in the MWC in total offense, averaging 339 yards per game. The lack of a passing game short-circuited much of the offense in general. While throwing 14 interceptions, the Lobo quarterbacks tossed only four touchdown passes, not even half as many as an Air Force squad that pretty much disdains the pass. As a result, New Mexico scored on only 19 touchdowns on 43 trips inside the red zone to rank last in the league. New Mexico"s wide receivers were young and unproven. While they did not get a lot of opportunities to catch passes once Porterie was sidelined, they should be more capable after a year"s experience in the lineup. Darrell Dickey, a former North Texas head coach who spent the past two seasons on the Utah State staff, is the new offensive coordinator.
DEFENSE: If the offense is going to look “completely different,” so is the New Mexico defense. Gone is the 3-3-5 scheme that was Long"s trademark, replaced by a more conventional 4-3 alignment. The defense deserves credit for playing as well as it did with little backing from the offense (holding Utah to 13 points, for instance) and will try to maintain its top four standing in total defense, having allowed 335 yards per game. The defense performed solidly in spring drills, with linebacker Carmen Messina making nine tackles in the final session. Clint McPeek, who played the “Lobo” position in the old scheme, has moved to outside linebacker after recovering from a knee injury. The defensive coordinator is Doug Mallory, formerly of LSU.
PREDICTION: The Lobos should improve from last year, simply as a result of having a healthy, capable quarterback, but qualifying for a bowl game still appears to be a stretch with a non-conference schedule that includes Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Tulsa. Locksley has a chance to generate some excitement in the program after some percentage of fans wanted more entertainment from the Long regime. The fast-paced scheme should deliver that, at least.
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
Where: San Diego, CA
Head Coach: Brady Hoke, 1st year
2008 Record: 2-10 SU, 5-6 ATS
Facility: Qualcomm Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 3-3-5 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -17.9 (#116 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -17.3 (#116 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 20 (#113 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 35.50 (#88 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 2-10, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 15-18 (45%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 9-6 (60%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 6-12 (33%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-0, 2-3 (40%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-6, 13-16 (45%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 19.3 (104) - 37.2 (114)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 312.4 (99) - 460.8 (114)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.85 (95) - 6.18 (104)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.09 (105) - 5.09 (104)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.87 (98) - 8.23 (113)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (91)
2009 OUTLOOK: Everybody wonders why San Diego State can"t win. Brady Hoke is eager to prove otherwise in the only program that failed to appear in a bowl game in the Mountain West"s first 10 seasons of existence. Hoke will gradually rebuild the Aztecs" program with the help of an outstanding staff, but it will take time.
OFFENSE: Ryan Lindley endured a rough freshman season as the starting quarterback of a 2-10 team, but he emerged with his body in one piece and his confidence intact, each a remarkable achievement. Lindley should keep improving under coordinator Al Borges and if the line can protect him better, Lindley has the potential for a big season. That"s because the Aztecs have some capable receivers, led by Vincent Brown and De- Marco Sampson. Playing on different teams in the spring game, Brown caught eight passes for 126 yards and Sampson had seven receptions for 186 yards. The running game remains a major issue for San Diego State, which ranked third-tolast in the country in rushing and was eighth in the nine-team Mountain West in total offense, averaging 312 yards per contest. Attiyah Henderson, the best of the three tailbacks, gained only 40 yards on 17 carries in the spring game. Time of possession can be an overrated statistic, but this is still remarkable
DEFENSE: If the offense"s inability to run the ball effectively in the spring game was viewed as a problem on one side, it was considered a breakthrough on the other side. That"s because San Diego State has been unable to stop anybody on the ground the past two seasons, ranking last in the Mountain West in total defense, allowing 460 yards per game. The Aztecs allowed 247 rushing yards per game, and that prevented them from stopping opponents more than half the time on third-down plays. The Aztecs expect dramatic improvement under coordinator Rocky Long, formerly New Mexico"s coach. Long has installed his 3-3-5 scheme that sends all kinds of defenders toward the line of scrimmage in an effort to shut down the run. Amid all of their struggles, the Aztecs have developed one outstanding defensive player. End B.J. Williams recorded two sacks and returned an interception for a touchdown in the spring game, showing the form that makes him an all-conference candidate. Hoke, whose background was primarily as a defensive coordinator and line coach before he took over the Ball State program, will personally coach the San Diego State linemen. But the secondary remains a big concern as well. The Aztecs were last in the Mountain West in pass efficiency defense as opponents completed 66 percent of their passes, with 21 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. That"s another reason San Diego State gave up 37.2 points per game.
PREDICTION: Consider that even with last year"s success at Ball State, Hoke left the school with a 34-38 record in six seasons. Factoring in where San Diego State stands after Chuck Long"s three-year run, it"s difficult to imagine that the Aztecs will get anywhere near .500. But they should be more respectable, winning around three games and build from there in a slow, steady progression that will get people"s attention.
TCU HORNED FROGS
Where: Fort Worth, TX
Head Coach: Gary Patterson, 9th year
2008 Record: 11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
Facility: Amon G. Carter Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-2-5 - Starters Returning: 4
Lettermen Returning: 46
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +22.3 (#7 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +19.5 (#7 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 57 (#11 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 36.33 (#82 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 11-2, 30-9 (77%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 23-13 (64%)
at Home ATS: 5-0, 13-3 (81%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 10-10 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 15-8 (65%)
as Favorite ATS: 8-4, 22-11 (67%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 1-2 (33%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 33.6 (21) - 11.3 (2)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 421.3 (24) - 217.8 (1)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.41 (64) - 3.84 (2)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.46 (46) - 1.72 (1)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.05 (56) - 5.79 (12)
Turnover Differential: +1 (9)
2009 OUTLOOK: The Horned Frogs have not won the Mountain West Conference title since 2005, when they rode overtime defeats of Utah and BYU to the title in their first year as conference members. They failed to expand or protect a fourth-quarter lead against Utah last November, and as a result will be eager to entertain the Utes in Fort Worth this November.
OFFENSE: While TCU"s reputation centers around its aggressive defense, the Horned Frogs" offense was very productive. Led by quarterback Andy Dalton and a stable of running backs, TCU averaged 421 yards per game to rank second in the Mountain West. However, the Horned Frogs could not score after the first quarter against Utah, which ultimately cost them in a 13-10 loss that decided the conference title. So there"s room to grow for Dalton and the offense. It helps that they have offensive tackle Marshall Newhouse, wide receiver Jimmy Young and running back Joseph Turner returning to a unit that will be expected to perform even better. On the left side, Newhouse has started every game the last two seasons. He anchored a line that enabled TCU to lead the nation in time of possession (35
DEFENSE: While the Horned Frogs shut down the prolific offenses of BYU in October and Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl, they were blistered by Oklahoma in the first half in September and gave up a game-winning touchdown drive to Utah in the fourth quarter in November. So that took some of the shine off their 217-yard-per-game average, which ranked first in the country in total defense. They also recorded 43 sacks. The Frogs took some significant hits on defense, but are happy to have end Jerry Hughes returning. Head coach Gary Patterson endorsed Hughes as “stronger and faster” than last season, when he was a sacking machine. Hughes was a consensus All- American after leading the nation in sacks (15) and forced fumbles (six). Hughes keyed a TCU defense which topped the nation in run defense, while placing second in scoring defense (11.3 points per game) and fourth in pass-efficiency defense. TCU lost the heart of its linebacking corps and some stars in the secondary, but returns cornerback Rafael Priest after giving up only 170 yards per game through the air. TCU causes trouble throughout the Mountain West with its speed on defense and the flexibility of Patterson"s 4-2-5 scheme, so he should be able to compensate for the lack of experience. The Frogs are known for creating takeaways, with 15 interceptions and 13 fumble recoveries in 2008, helping the team tie for the league lead in turnover margin (plus-13).
PREDICTION: The Horned Frogs would like to get back to that conference championship level in 2009 and they certainly have a good shot, even after having a league-high five players taken in the NFL draft. Non-conference games at Virginia and Clemson will help the Frogs get ready for their annual tests with BYU and Utah. Those visits to the ACC heartland may determine whether the Frogs can put themselves in the BCS mix again, after they competed with Utah and Boise State last year for the one berth guaranteed to a school from a non-automatic qualifying league.
UNLV REBELS
Where: Las Vegas, NV
Head Coach: Mike Sanford, 5th year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS
Facility: Sam Boyd Stadium
Offense: Shotgun Spread - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 46
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -7 (#92 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -6.7 (#95 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 25 (#104 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 38.42 (#69 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 4-3, 10-8 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 6-11 (35%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-3, 8-5 (62%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-2, 8-14 (36%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.6 (58) - 32.6 (101)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 345 (73) - 424 (106)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.25 (74) - 6.17 (103)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.61 (88) - 5.01 (103)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.96 (60) - 8.08 (111)
Turnover Differential: +0 (66)
2009 OUTLOOK: It would seem reasonable to say the Rebels improved dramatically last season, but the truth is they won only two conference games. UNLV still has a long way to go, but head coach Mike Sanford is being given that opportunity, having made enough progress through four seasons to earn a contract extension. Now, his team needs to make another jump.
OFFENSE: Just when he was developing into one of the Mountain West Conference"s top quarterbacks, Omar Clayton was injured in the middle of last season. The good news was that Mike Clausen performed well in his absence, so UNLV is well stocked at the most critical position in Sanford"s spread offense. Clayton returned from his knee injury to participate in spring drills on a somewhat limited basis, while Clausen was the star of the spring game, completing 10 of 14 passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns. The Rebels still would like to become more efficient after ranking sixth in the MWC in total offense, averaging 345 yards per game. The quarterbacks will rely heavily on receiver Ryan Wolfe, while senior Rodelin Anthony emerged in the spring game with four receptions for 48 yards and will join Wolfe, Phillip Payne and Michael Johnson in potentially the MWC"s best receiving corps. The Rebels will miss NFL draftee Frank Summers in the running game, however. Chris Brogden was the top rusher in the spring game with three carries for 24 yards. Thus, there may be an immediate opportunity for freshman Bradley Randle. Considering how capable his backup is, Clayton likely will be asked to do more running in the Rebels" option game. The offensive line, led by right guard Joe Hawley, has five solid players, but lacks depth. UNLV will hope to be as efficient in the red zone as it was last year. The Rebels scored on 35 of 37 trips inside the 20-yard line, with 29 touchdowns.
DEFENSE: Defense has been the biggest deficiency through Sanford"s five seasons in Las Vegas, and that side of the ball remains an issue. The Rebels improved enough to win five games after three consecutive two-win seasons, but they will have to get better defensively to ever qualify for a bowl. The Rebels were eighth in the nine-team MWC in total defense, allowing 423 yards per game. They did develop a star in linebacker Jason Beauchamp, who was incredibly productive game after game. Other players will have to complement him for the Rebels to make defensive strides. Malo Taumua should be a force on the line and linebackers Ronnie Paulo and Starr Fuimano will work well with Beauchamp. In the secondary, still the weak spot of the defense, UNLV needs cornerback Quinton Porter to come back strong from shoulder surgery. The Rebels ranked eighth in the league in scoring defense (32.6 points per game) and produced only 13 takeaways. As for other stats, let"s just say it"s a good thing for UNLV"s defense that San Diego State is in the league. The Rebels were eighth practically across the board, producing only 11 sacks, while giving up 213 rushing yards per game and struggling in pass-efficiency defense, allowing 24 touchdowns and picking off only seven passes. Opponents scored on 42 of 45 red-zone trips.
PREDICTION: The Rebels did post some impressive non-conference victories and were generally more competitive, but could not move out of the bottom tier of the MWC. Can they do that in 2009? The offense appears to be on the verge of big things, but the defense is sure to hold it back from breaking into the top half of the standings. A more reachable goal for the Rebels is just gaining bowl eligibility at 6-6 and forcing the hometown Las Vegas Bowl to consider them.
UTAH UTES
Where: Salt Lake City, UT
Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham, 5th year
2008 Record: 13-0 SU, 8-4 ATS
Facility: Rice-Eccles Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 54
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +19.7 (#8 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +18.1 (#9 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 58 (#8 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 37.92 (#72 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 13-0, 30-9 (77%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 23-14 (62%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 11-5 (69%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 12-9 (57%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 16-8 (67%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-4, 11-11 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 8-0, 12-3 (80%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 36.9 (15) - 17.2 (12)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 399.4 (36) - 289.2 (11)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.7 (42) - 4.57 (14)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.05 (66) - 3.1 (13)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.68 (28) - 6.05 (22)
Turnover Differential: +1 (10)
2009 OUTLOOK: The last time Utah was coming off an unbeaten season, the Utes dipped to 7-5 in 2005. Those circumstances were different, because Utah had lost quarterback Alex Smith as the NFL"s No. 1 overall pick and head coach Kyle Whittingham was replacing Urban Meyer. Regardless, the Utes are determined not to slip too far from their current perch.
OFFENSE: Utah ranked third in the Mountain West Conference in total offense with 400 yards per game, but the statistics only begin to describe quarterback Brian Johnson"s influence on the team"s success. The senior led game-winning drives late in the fourth quarter against Air Force, Oregon State and TCU on the way to Utah"s 13-0 success, making himself very difficult to replace. The Utes have three good candidates, however. Corbin Louks has two years of experience as a situational player behind Johnson, Terrance Cain has good credentials from junior college and Jordan Wynn is a highly regarded freshman. Utah also has running back Matt Asiata, who will take over the position full time after sharing it a year ago. And even though their top three receivers all ended up in NFL mini camps this spring, the Utes will feature David Reed, Jereme Brooks and Aiona Key in a group that Whittingham says should be just as good or better than the 2008 bunch. The offensive line looks solid, with tackle Zane Beadles leading the way. The Utes did give up 25 sacks, but most of those came early in the season when Johnson was often guilty of holding the ball too long. Utah will have a new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, with Dave Schramm replacing Andy Ludwig, who"s now at California. Schramm coached the running backs the past four seasons. Schramm will try to duplicate the Utes" red-zone success—scoring on 51 of 56 trips, including 40 touchdowns.
DEFENSE: Utah also will have a new coordinator. Kalani Sitake was promoted after working with the linebackers the past four seasons. He"s following Gary Andersen, who became Utah State"s head coach after directing a defense that ranked second in the MWC by allowing 289 yards per game. In the conference- title showdown with TCU and the Sugar Bowl against Alabama, the Utes allowed just one touchdown to each opponent. Whittingham remains heavily involved in the defense, which lost end Paul Kruger and cornerback Sean Smith. Each was a secondround pick in the NFL as underclassmen. The Utes still return seven starters and have all kinds of talented players, led up front by ends Koa Misi and Derrick Shelby. The linebackers are the heart of the defense, with Stevenson Sylvester and Mike Wright probable all-league performers. There are some questions at cornerback, with Brice McCain joining Smith in the NFL, but safeties Robert Johnson and Joe Dale are very dependable. Utah allowed only a 30 percent conversion rate by its opponent on third downs and posted 19 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries, helping the team tie for first in the MWC in turnover margin (plus-13). The Utes were second in the league in scoring defense (17.2 points per game).
PREDICTION: A trip to Oregon in the third week of the season will determine whether or not the Utes can make another national splash, but they should be in the Mountain West Conference chase regardless of what happens in Eugene. The season opener against Andersen"s state-rival Utah State team also will be interesting.
WYOMING COWBOYS
Where: Laramie, WY
Head Coach: Dave Christensen, 1st year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 2-9 ATS
Facility: War Memorial Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 42
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -15.1 (#113 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -12.9 (#109 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 25 (#105 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 40.00 (#62 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 15-21 (42%)
Overall ATS: 2-9, 10-24 (29%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 6-11 (35%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-4, 4-13 (24%)
vs Conference ATS: 1-7, 4-19 (17%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-3, 4-10 (29%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-6, 6-14 (30%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 12.7 (120) - 27.8 (74)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 295.8 (108) - 329.7 (39)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.55 (104) - 4.87 (31)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.25 (56) - 3.71 (41)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.1 (115) - 6.33 (38)
Turnover Differential: -1.83 (119)
2009 OUTLOOK: Compared with the league"s other firstyear coaches—San Diego State and New Mexico—Wyoming"s Dave Christensen has the most Coach of the Year potential in the Mountain West Conference. That"s because he"s inheriting a decent defense, and has the most room for improvement on offense. If he can get anything going at all with his no-huddle, spread offense, Wyoming could climb toward respectability fairly soon.
OFFENSE: Wyoming"s quarterbacking was a disaster last season and here comes Christensen with a scheme that demands a lot of the signal-caller. The Cowboys can only hope that senior Karsten Sween is up to the challenge, displaying the form that once made him a rising star in Laramie, only to fade. Sween was the second of three starting quarterbacks the Cowboys served up. Wyoming averaged 296 yards per game to rank last in the Mountain West offensively. The lack of production resulted in a 4-8 record and the loss of coach Joe Glenn"s job. Christensen, who left his post as Missouri"s offensive coordinator, will try to revitalize the offense. Sween demonstrated some progress by completing 16 passes for 154 yards in the spring game, although his accuracy resembled his 48 percent rate of 2008, when he threw six interceptions and no touchdown passes. Sween threw only one interception during Wyoming"s spring scrimmages. While sifting through three starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys threw 17 interceptions and also lost 19 fumbles, contributing to their astounding minus-22 figure in turnover margin. That helps explain why they scored only 12.7 points per game, while scoring only 13 touchdowns in 24 red-zone trips. The Cowboys also must replace running back Devin Moore, who was easily the best thing the offense had going for it. James Davis gained 60 yards on 11 carries in the spring finale, though. Christensen also should make good use of tight end Jesson Salyards. The coaches named running back Darius Terry, guard Nick Carlson and receiver David Leonard the most improved offensive players of the spring, but Christensen was disappointed with the receivers as a group after they dropped many passes in the final session.
DEFENSE: Wyoming wasted a solid defensive performance in 2008. That"s actually an encouraging sign, because the defense has eight returning starters from the group that ranked third in the MWC by allowing 329 yards per game. The defense is led by tackle John Fletcher and safety Chris Prosinski. Christensen is looking to them to help re-establish “that Cowboy-tough attitude Wyoming is known for,” he said. The Cowboys also need to force more turnovers, after posting only 14. The Cowboys intercepted two passes in the spring game, after which Christensen concluded, “I wish we could have gotten more players out there to get better evaluations of them, but we had several guys injured. Some of them were established players in this program, but everybody needs work.” The staff named lineman Alex Stover, linebacker Brian Hendricks and safety Jamichael Hall the most improved defensive players of the spring.
PREDICTION: Sween was once a capable quarterback, so the new scheme could bring out better results from him and the Cowboys could surprise some conference rivals with their home-field advantage in windy, chilly Laramie. BYU, for example, comes to town Nov. 7. Wyoming will not climb into the MWC"s top four, but a break-even record is not out of the question.
